Saudi year-end sale seasons (11.11, White Friday, 12.12): which one deserves your discount and your budget?

Wednesday 11 November, Friday 27 November, Saturday 12 December 2026. That's three sale seasons in 31 days: 11.11, White Friday (the Gulf's name for Black Friday) and 12.12. You have one ad budget and not enough stock for three clearances. So the real question isn't how much to discount. It's where.

My view: the three seasons don't deserve equal discounts. Pick one for the deep cut. For most Saudi stores that's White Friday, when shoppers pay most attention. Use 11.11 to warm up existing customers and test your offer, stock and delivery, and 12.12 for whatever's left: slow stock, bundles, and people who didn't buy.

But don't pick White Friday out of habit. Pick it from your store's sales sheet for last year; if the sheet says otherwise, believe it.

How do you know your year-end plan is paying for the discount three times?

Last year's sales sheet will tell you; the ad report won't. Open early November to mid-December 2025 and look for these signs:

• Orders rose in every season, but what was left after discount, shipping and ads looks like an ordinary month.
• Your best-seller ran out before White Friday, or much of it went on 11.11 at a discount it didn't need.
• Ad cost per order climbed each season while you kept raising the budget.
• The same store-wide percentage ran three times in a month, and customers started waiting for the next one.
• A wave of doorstep refusals and returns arrived in late December, after 12.12.

Two of these are enough. They mean you paid the discount three times and collected the profit once, if at all.

Why does this happen every year-end?

Because stores borrow their calendar from the big marketplaces, which discount every season on different economics. A store on Salla or Zid pays every riyal of discount out of its own margin.

Then one percentage for the whole store. A single banner number gives a product that sells on its own the same cut as one sitting in the warehouse since summer.

Then a budget split evenly. A third per season looks fair, but the seasons differ in shoppers' attention and the cost of reaching them.

And no stock plan. Nobody decided how many units of the strongest product to hold for 27 November, so 11.11 decided for everyone.

How do you check last year's seasons before deciding?

Four steps, in my working order, all from files you already have. I always read the sales sheet before the ad report: the report shows what the platform credited to itself; the sheet, what reached the bank.

1. Sales by season. Export November and December 2025 orders from your store dashboard and tag each order by season: the 11.11 days, White Friday week, the 12.12 days, and the ordinary days in between. The bad sign is a season full of orders and empty of contribution.
2. Contribution per order, by season. From the selling price after discount, subtract product cost, shipping, payment fees, ad cost per delivered order, and the cost of refusals and returns. The season with the highest total contribution, not the most orders, is your candidate for the deep discount. The White Friday preparation guide shows how to set each product's discount ceiling.
3. Stock cover to 27 November. For each best-seller, compare today's stock with its sales in last year's White Friday week. If stock can't cover that week, keep the product out of 11.11 and ask your supplier today whether they can deliver in time.
4. Who bought in which season. Match orders to customer numbers. Did 11.11 buyers come back for White Friday? Did people who missed White Friday buy on 12.12? If the three seasons' buyers are mostly the same people, you're discounting to them three times.

The sheet comes first for a reason. At Argan Package in Saudi Arabia, a campaign for slow-moving products raised their sales by 400% in seven days. Its starting point was the sales and warehouse data, not the ad report.

The decision table: what role does each season play?

Each season gets one role, and the discount and budget that fit it. The table assumes your sheet confirmed White Friday as your strongest season. If 11.11 is stronger, swap the first two rows' roles and leave 12.12 alone.

Season	Role	Which products	Discount depth	Ad budget share	What to watch
11.11, Wed 11 Nov	Warm-up for existing customers, and a test	Mid-movers and one trial bundle; not best-sellers	Light, or a gift instead	Small; reach mostly via customer messages	Which offer sells, picking and delivery speed, cash-on-delivery confirmation rate
White Friday, Fri 27 Nov	Main season	Best-sellers with reserved stock, plus what worked on 11.11	Deep, within each product's discount ceiling	Largest	Yesterday's contribution every morning, remaining stock, cost per delivered order
12.12, Sat 12 Dec	Clear what's left and win back non-buyers	Slow stock, bundles, season leftovers	Deep on slow stock only; none on what sells by itself	Small, aimed at visitors who didn't buy	Refusals and returns after shipping, who buys again at full price in January
Days in between	Full-price selling	Everything	None	Whatever your usual campaigns need	Orders not stalling while customers wait

How do you pace budget and stock across the five weeks?

Cheapest first: what skips the ad auction, then what protects you from losses, then paid ads.

Existing customers first. The 11.11 message goes by WhatsApp and email to past buyers, ahead of any ad. It's the cheapest offer test you'll get: if people who know your store don't move, strangers won't either.

The licence before the announcement. A discount in Saudi Arabia needs a licence from the Ministry of Commerce. According to Okaz's 3 September 2026 report on the ministry's August inspections, inspectors check that the licence is displayed, discounts match what was licensed, price tags show the price before and after, and the return and exchange policy is clearly disclosed. The general discount season ran from early August to 31 October 2026, so each November and December offer period needs its own licence; check fees and conditions on the ministry's e-service first. The percentage goes on the licence before it goes in the ad.

One seasonality adjustment per window. With Smart Bidding in Google Ads, seasonality adjustments tell the bidding to expect a jump in conversion rate. Google says they're ideal for short events of one to seven days, may not work as well beyond 14, and aren't for routine seasonality. They cover Search, Shopping, Demand Gen and Display on target CPA or target ROAS, and Performance Max on any strategy. My working rule: one adjustment per sale window where you expect a real jump in conversion rate (usually White Friday, perhaps 12.12), each with its own start and end; none for a light 11.11; never one stretched from 11 November to 12 December.

Best-seller stock held back. Reserve today the quantity White Friday week needs, and keep that product out of 11.11. 12.12 is for slow stock, at a deep discount or inside a bundle; start by sorting slow-moving stock before you discount it.

Before you raise the main season's budget, work out your store's break-even ROAS with the campaign profit calculator. If your expected return sits below it, extra spend buys losing orders. In all three seasons, confirm every cash-on-delivery order before it ships, because refusals rise around sale weeks; see how to tell why cash-on-delivery orders get refused.

What I'd avoid: raising a price before the sale to inflate the percentage, which misleads the customer and fails the inspector's before-and-after check. And judging a season by its order count before the return period has passed and the courier's cash has arrived.

When do you need someone to go over the plan with you?

When you can't finish step 2. That happens when shipping and refusal costs sit across the store dashboard, courier statements and ad account, with no file combining them, or when the sheet says your strongest season isn't White Friday and you can't tell why. A second reader then saves you a week you don't have.

This is part of my work on e-commerce growth: I start with the sales and warehouse sheets, then the ad account.

What should you do this week?

11.11 is a week away. Salla's seasons calendar advises preparing for White Friday about six weeks ahead; three are left. There's no time for three plans:

1. Today: export November and December 2025 orders and sort them by season.
2. Tomorrow: calculate contribution per order by season and choose your main one.
3. By week's end: reserve best-seller stock, prepare the 11.11 message to existing customers, and apply for a licence for each offer period.